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During such episodes, intermediaries expand their lending and leverage, thereby building up financial fragility.Crises are generally initiated by a moderate adverse shock that puts pressure on intermediaries’ balance sheets, triggering a creditor run, a contraction in new lending, and ultimately a deep and persistent recession.Which particular assets have the highest long-run returns?We answer these questions on the basis of a new and comprehensive dataset for all major asset classes, including—for the first time—total returns to the largest, but oft ignored, component of household wealth, housing.Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much?Is there a tendency for returns to fall in the long-run?

Our results illustrate the efficacy of such modeling techniques for monitoring and potentially enhancing national financial stability.

I solve for the time series of stochastic shocks and endogenous forecast rule weights that allow the model to exactly replicate the observed time paths of the U. This paper explores the contribution of each of these three developments in explaining financial crises using long-run historical data for 17 advanced economies.

Previous research showed that credit growth is a robust predictor of financial fragility.

Respondents’ LFS histories outperform current-month responses to survey questions about duration and reason for unemployment, desire to work, or reasons for not searching in predicting future employment.

We find that the best predictor of future employment for the non-employed is their duration since last employment.

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